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View Poll Results: What are the prospects for the future of the US economy?

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  • The US economy will rebound within 5 years

    36 46.15%
  • It stay in decline and alter our lives permanently

    23 29.49%
  • We don't have enough information, yet.

    19 24.36%
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Thread: The Economy Thread

  1. #120
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    It is a double edge sword for China. China still has a lot of money invested in the US that they will not even begin to recoup for probably a minimum of 10-15 years.

  2. #121
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    I agree though, China seems to have a better foothold vs. the US.

  3. #122
    Behemoth sargent's Avatar
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    Ron Paul comments. Short and succinct:


  4. #123
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    I watched all of the live testimony of Bernake and Geithner. It's obvious there is no type of sustainable growth model STILL and this bad asset investment is just another shot in the dark. It will be very difficult to price those assets accurately, good luck for anyone interested in taking a risk on those. Not to mention, what about inevitable hyperinflation and the methods to pay off this insane deficit ?

  5. #124
    MD staff Daibhí O'Buadain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChromeHearts View Post
    I watched all of the live testimony of Bernake and Geithner.It's obvious there is no type of sustainable growth model STILL and this bad asset investment is just another shot in the dark. It will be very difficult to price those assets accurately, good luck for anyone interested in taking a risk on those. Not to mention, what about inevitable hyperinflation and the methods to pay off this insane deficit ?
    Everytime I read any analysis on this crisis, the words "unpresendented event" keep on appearing.
    Nothing like this has ever happened.
    The solutions they are coming up with are all educated guesses as to how to solve this crisis.
    No one really knows if they will work or not.

  6. #125
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    yeah, any number of things can happen. you have to just predict and run with it.


    right now it is just printing money.

  7. #126
    Behemoth sargent's Avatar
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    Ron Paul vs. Bernanke on March 24, 2009. Salient points by Paul. We love booms, but hate the busts.


  8. #127
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    I think bernake had a better experience than geithner.

    That congressional hearing was pretty redundant today.


    The market bobbled kinda low, they must have missed the part where the US is going to back up the bad asset investment purchases while holding the current deficit we have right now. That's a very large "insurance policy" the government is willing to put up.......not to mention private investors will only make up a small percentage of purchases.


    Either I am overestimating the severity of the situation, or the public is just oblivious to it. One of the 2.


    Buy oil. Lots.

  9. #128
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    Return on equity= risk free rate+ beta (market rate of return+risk free rate)

  10. #129
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    That's supposed to say 'coc' not return on equity. I can't edit for some reason.

  11. #130
    Behemoth sargent's Avatar
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    Here is Jim Rogers on why the recent dollar rally is happening and he still states the US Greenback will go down:


  12. #131
    MD staff Daibhí O'Buadain's Avatar
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    Default EU presidency: US economic plans 'a way to hell'

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EU-pre...-14739232.html

    EU presidency: US economic plans 'a way to hell'

    Czech premier, currently European Union president, calls US economic measures 'a way to hell'

    Raf Casert, Associated Press Writer
    Wednesday March 25, 2009, 9:10 am EDT

    STRASBOURG, France (AP) -- A top European Union politician on Wednesday slammed U.S. plans to spend its way out of recession as "a way to hell."

    Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, told the European Parliament that President Barack Obama's massive stimulus package and banking bailout "will undermine the stability of the global financial market."

    A day after his government collapsed because of a parliamentary vote of no-confidence, Topolanek took the EU presidency on a collision course with Washington over how to deal with the global economic recession.

    Most European leaders favor tighter financial regulation, while the U.S. has been pushing for larger economic stimulus plans.

    Topolanek's comments are the strongest criticism so far from a European leader as the 27-nation bloc bristles from recent U.S. criticism that it is not spending enough to stimulate demand.

    They also pave the way for a stormy summit next week in London between leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized countries.

    The host of the summit, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, praised Obama on Tuesday for his willingness to work with Europe on reforming the global economy in the run-up to the G-20 summit.

    The United States plans to spend heavily to try and lift its economy out of recession with a $787 billion economic stimulus plan of tax rebates, health and welfare benefits, as well as extra energy and infrastructure spending.

    To encourage banks to lend again, the government will also pump $1 trillion into the financial system by buying up treasury bonds and mortgage securities in an effort to clear some of the "toxic assets" -- devalued and untradeable assets -- from banks' balance sheets.

    Topolanek bluntly said that "the United States did not take the right path.".

    He slammed the U.S.' widening budget deficit and protectionist trade measures -- such as the "Buy America" -- and said that "all of these steps, these combinations and permanency is the way to hell."

    "We need to read the history books and the lessons of history and the biggest success of the (EU) is the refusal to go this way," he said.

    "Americans will need liquidity to finance all their measures and they will balance this with the sale of their bonds but this will undermine the stability of the global financial market," said Topolanek.

    Obama insisted Tuesday that his massive budget proposal is moving the nation down the right path and will help the ailing economy grow again. "This budget is inseparable from this recovery," he said, "because it is what lays the foundation for a secure and lasting prosperity."

    Obama also claimed early progress in his aggressive campaign to lead the United States out of its worst economic crisis in 70 years and declared that despite obstacles ahead, the U.S. is "moving in the right direction."

    AP Business Writer Aoife White in Brussels contributed to this report

  13. #132
    MD staff Daibhí O'Buadain's Avatar
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    Default Wall Street adds to gains on upbeat economic data

    New Home sales and Durable Goods Order February numbers are up and this has suprised both economists and the street which were both expecting negative numbers.

    Maybe the economy has now started to turn the corner and we are slowly moving into a recovery?


    Wall Street adds to gains on upbeat economic data
    Stocks extend gains following surprise increase in sales of new homes
    Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
    Wednesday March 25, 2009, 10:13 am EDT

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are extending their gains after getting another better-than-expected report on the housing market.

    The government has reported that new home sales rose 4.7 percent in February. The report is encouraging because economists had expected sales to fall.

    Recent reports on housing starts and building permits have also topped expectations.

    Stocks were already rising Wednesday on a report that demand for big-ticket manufactured goods rose in February rather than fell as economists had predicted. The home sales report added momentum to the buying.

    The Dow Jones industrial average is up 160 at 7,820. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 17 at 823, while the Nasdaq composite index is up 35 at 1,552.

  14. #133
    Behemoth sargent's Avatar
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    ^ Good paste & post. Things may indeed get better. We wait.

    On April 2nd, we're going to see the US Dept. of Labor give the "job loss" number, report.

    This will be very significant in my opinion. We'll be waiting 7 days for this report.

  15. #134
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    Seems like the last 2 recent increases in unemployment didn't affect market performance. Mainly it has been the banks and housing issue that seems to be an issue. Actually, the rally came to a dead stop when IBM just announced job relocation in India.

  16. #135
    Behemoth sargent's Avatar
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    But....Mr. Chrome....people that are unemployd and are worried about being unemployed in the future do not spend. In a consumer driven economy like the US's this can be a very big problem. Can be. We don't know yet. Markets a part of the puzzle. One piece among many.

    Below is a good quality discussion on the Austrian School Mentality. Most "financial show are crap," but this isn't bad. Skip the first 45 seconds.

    Please check this out. It's better than most, IMO:


  17. #136
    Iron Addict ChromeHearts's Avatar
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    i agree sargent that the money is not flowing, spending wise within the economy. The market trends tho, are less reflective of that as it is a combination of personal income (such as myself) and large funds whatever they may be (pension, hedge, mutual, etc....) These large sells/purchases are what move certain stocks, not so much the economic condition.


    Wall Street is still having ups and downs in surges due to the news that is being released, not so much with actual consumer situations. They are not as tightly correlated as they may seem. They are still correlated, but just not move for move.


    Eventually, lack of consumer spending will drag down these companies in the meantime, but small blips in the market, esp on a daily basis, dosen't really provide much other than quick gains if you play your cards right.

    Also too, the market is based off of heavy, heavy investments, from MBS (morgage back securities), REIT (real estate investment trust), or whatever popular high-risk garbage is out there. That's why, IMO, there is so much influx on Obama's speeches or large company profits/losses.


    Likewise, with the increasing unemployment, I adjust my portfolio accordingly for that, but lately it seems to have little impact.


    Not to say that the unemployment is not important, and I'm sure will most likely increase, but it dosen't not seem to have much 'market moving power' as you'd think anyway.


    I wish I could watch movies online, however, when i am at home my computer is currently broke and needs to be replaced, so i am either at work where the video is blocked or on my phone. I'll check it out tommorow when I go on campus for my grad class.


    There are too many factors that move the market up or down at the end of the day.

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