housing is in a bubble, just like the stock and bond markets
The US economy will rebound within 5 years
It stay in decline and alter our lives permanently
We don't have enough information, yet.
You have been warned: Housing Recovery? What recovery?
Housing Rebound in U.S. Losing Steam as Prices Rise
By Lorraine Woellert Apr 24, 2014
The housing recovery in the U.S. is running out of steam as buyers balk at record prices and highermortgage rates that are making properties less affordable.
Sales dropped a surprising 14.5 percent to a 384,000annualized pace, lower than any forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the weakest since July, Commerce Department data showed today inWashington. Three of the four regions saw setbacks, with demand in the West slumping to the lowest level in more than two years.
Entire: Housing Rebound in U.S. Losing Steam as Prices Rise - Bloomberg
And this.....14 years:
Demand for Home Loans Plunges
Interest-Rate Spike Puts Mortgages at 14-Year Low
By NICK TIMIRAOS
Updated April 24, 2014
Mortgage lending declined to the lowest level in 14 years in the first quarter as homeowners pulled back sharply from refinancing and house hunters showed little appetite for new loans, the latest sign of how rising interest rates have dented the housing recovery.
Lenders originated $235 billion in mortgage loans during the January-March quarter, down 58% from the same period a year ago and down 23% from the fourth quarter of 2013,...
Entire: Demand for Home Loans Plunges - WSJ.com
housing is in a bubble, just like the stock and bond markets
Uber’s $90K salary could disrupt the taxi business
Uber cab drivers in New York are raking in near-six-figure salaries—about triple the amount their traditional taxi driver counterparts make, according to an article in The Washington Post.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York cab drivers make about $32,000 a year. Uber claims the average salary for its drivers in the same city is above $90,000, presumably after the company takes its 20 percent cut from the driver's total fares. That number does not account for vehicle maintenance costs and such, but it may still explain why 20,000 drivers sign up with Uber every month, according to the company.
Smartphones deserve some of the credit. UberX drivers rely on them for leads, so they do not have to drive around hoping to be in the right place at the right time for a fare.The company claims it can serve 43 percent of the U.S. population with a cab in less than five minutes. Uber also packs mechanisms into its app that allow both drivers and passengers to rate each other. The Post's Matt McFarland thinks such a simple measure may make longstanding taxi regulation schemes in some U.S. cities unnecessary.
Dear Hiring Managers: Stop Rejecting "Desperate" Candidates
Kathryn recently went on a job interview and felt like she nailed it. In fact, the hiring manager started talking about start dates, so she was shocked when she spoke to the recruiter the following morning and found out that company had decided she wasn’t a “good fit.” Kathryn pushed the recruiter for additional feedback, which the recruiter reluctantly shared. Her problem? She seemed too desperate for the job.
Desperation is a big turn off for many employers. This, of course, has some logic behind it. Desperate people will take any job they are offered, and employers don’t like that. They want someone who wants this job, because otherwise, the employee is likely to leave when something better comes along.
So, avoiding the desperate means you have less of a chance of hiring someone who isn’t a good fit. But, let’s be honest here, have you ever been desperate?
I have been. It took me a while to land a job after finishing graduate school, because let’s face it, how many job openings do you see that say, “Help Wanted: Political Scientist. Must be able to discuss Nietzsche and do regression analysis.” Yep, that was me. So, was I pretty desperate by the time I finally landed a job? Yes. Am I grateful that the hiring manager didn’t say, “Gee, I can see that she’s been out of school for five months. She must be living off credit cards and noodle ramen. Let’s not hire her.” Yes.
For some reason, it’s okay for businesses to not be perfect, but not job candidates. Businesses underpay, misrepresent how flexible their schedules really are, and often have bad managers. Yet, if a job candidate comes across as someone who desperately wants to get back to work (or wants to change jobs), we reject them. Which leaves candidates who are currently unemployed (or are in bad jobs) in the weird position of having to pretend that they are fabulously wealthy and just want to get a job to get them out of the house for a bit.
Isn’t that ridiculous? People need money, and we want them to get that through working. So, before you reject someone because they want any job, consider if the job you are offering is perfect. Could you possibly be underpaying? If so, then you should be thrilled that you’ve found someone who is worth more than you can pay, even if it’s for a short time. Is your staff overworked? If so, you should be doing a happy dance that you’ve found someone who is willing to put up with your crazy demands. Do you have developmental opportunities? If not, you should be glad that you’ve found someone that wants to move forward with their career, but is willing to work for you for a time.
Additionally, keep in mind that most people are not great at job interviews and those that are great at interviewing aren’t necessarily the best at working. Someone who projects desperation may have the exact skills you need in the job. Don’t discount them because of a bad interview.
Another thing to keep in mind is that people don’t stay at jobs for 20 years any more. Your perfect candidate isn’t likely to stay that much longer than the person who took the job out of desperation.
Your first priority should be hiring someone who can do a fabulous job, and sometimes that person is desperate for a job. Don’t reject on that basis alone.
Living the reality:
Bretton Woods II lives on, packing pain for western workers
In reviewing their oft-cited research from 2003, Deutsche Bank economists David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber and Cabezon Capital's Michael Dooley last month reckoned that this mutually reinforcing regime of currency pegging and hard currency stockpiling had much further to run.
Still-powerful driving forces behind the system, they insist, are the industrialization of the remaining tens of millions of poor, under-productive agricultural workers in China and then another phase - perhaps just starting - when India adopts a similar model of mass employment in manufacturing and exports.
If they're correct, the prospect of a 'secular stagnation' of the rich world over the next decade looms ever larger: workers' incomes will continue to be clipped by the greater access of multi-national corporations to these new and cheaper pools of labor overseas.
Above is excerpt. Entire is here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0GY0F220140903
These are not enough jobs to keep up with the amount of people entering the labor force every month, and what kind of jobs are these?
Treasuries Pare Biggest Weekly Gain Since July Before Jobs Data
By David Goodman and Wes Goodman Oct 3, 2014 5:46 PM GMT+0700 1 Comment Email Print
Treasuries fell, with the 10-year yield paring its biggest weekly drop since July, before a government report that economists said will show U.S employers added the most jobs in three months in September.
Schiff on the labor market and why the "lowering" unemployment stat means things are getting worse - more people are not in the labor force and if you work 2 hours per week but want a full-time job, you are "employed" according to the U3 rate.
Interest rates will increase. And Debt interest payment will be $800 billion per year.
The Legacy of Debt: Interest Costs Poised to Surpass Defense and Nondefense Discretionary Spending
By JOSH ZUMBRUN
The U.S. has come a long way since the days of trillion-dollar deficits, just a few years ago. The White House projects 2016 will have the smallest budget deficit in eight years. Yet the budgetary impact of the debt that’s been accumulated–$18 trillion in total, $13 trillion of that owed to the public–will reassert itself.
Currently, the government’s interest costs are around $200 billion a year, a sum that’s low due to the era of low interest rates. Forecasters at the White House and Congressional Budget Office believe interest rates will gradually rise, and when that happens, the interest costs of the U.S. government are set to soar, from just over $200 billion to nearly $800 billion a year by decade’s end.
The Legacy of Debt: Interest Costs Poised to Surpass Defense and Nondefense Discretionary Spending - Real Time Economics - WSJ
More "predictions." Recession coming? We have never gotten out of the last one (even though the official definition of a 'recession' is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP growth).
Video at link:
Right now the economic trend in the United States is positive, but the "party" for the market will come to an end later this year and a recession will likely hit in 2016, a market expert told CNBC on Thursday.
"The market looks for recessions. It's forward looking. I think next year is when the recession will come so if you back it up six months it puts us into the end of this year when I think the bear market starts," Ken Moraif, a senior advisor with wealth management and investment firm Money Matters, said in an interview with "Closing Bell."
Moraif contended that prosperity triggers a recession because of oversupply.