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View Poll Results: What are the prospects for the future of the US economy?

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  • The US economy will rebound within 5 years

    36 48.65%
  • It stay in decline and alter our lives permanently

    20 27.03%
  • We don't have enough information, yet.

    18 24.32%
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Thread: The Economy Thread

  1. #868
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    Followed by this: the Fed said it was going to taper off QE, but then pulled an about face. Not even a reduction of the monthly, but keeping QE going at full-bore.

    Chrome, I'd love to hear your opinion.

    IMO, this does not mean things are good at all, and the knee-jerk stock market jump could be a sign of a market downturn to come.

    Article:

    Fed Announces Quantitative Easing Will Continue, S&P Hits Record High
    By Patrick Brennan
    September 18, 2013 2:08 PM
    Comments


    They didn’t call it QE Infinity for nothing: In a surprising move, the Federal Reserve announced this afternoon it won’t slow the pace of its quantitative-easing program, which purchases bonds on the open market. The committee said in its statement today that it had “decided to await more evidence that progress [in the economic recovery] will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases.”

    Stocks, which have soared as this round of money printing has continued, declined significantly in June when Fed chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that he thought the pace of purchases would slow in the fall, but over the course of the summer, he tried to allay concerns about the coming restraint, noting that the schedule for “tapering” the program was based on the Fed’s often-optimistic forecast, and that labor market conditions were weaker than the unemployment rate indicated.

    That last issue was reinforced a couple weeks ago, when the August jobs report showed the unemployment rate had declined but the pace of job creation did too.

    Entire: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...atrick-brennan

  2. #869
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    Followed by this: the Fed said it was going to taper off QE, but then pulled an about face. Not even a reduction of the monthly, but keeping QE going at full-bore.

    Chrome, I'd love to hear your opinion.

    IMO, this does not mean things are good at all, and the knee-jerk stock market jump could be a sign of a market downturn to come.

    Artice:

    Fed Announces Quantitative Easing Will Continue, S&P Hits Record High
    By Patrick Brennan
    September 18, 2013 2:08 PM
    Comments


    They didn’t call it QE Infinity for nothing: In a surprising move, the Federal Reserve announced this afternoon it won’t slow the pace of its quantitative-easing program, which purchases bonds on the open market. The committee said in its statement today that it had “decided to await more evidence that progress [in the economic recovery] will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases.” Stocks, which have soared as this round of money printing has continued, declined significantly in June when Fed chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that he thought the pace of purchases would slow in the fall, but over the course of the summer, he tried to allay concerns about the coming restraint, noting that the schedule for “tapering” the program was based on the Fed’s often-optimistic forecast, and that labor market conditions were weaker than the unemployment rate indicated. That last issue was reinforced a couple weeks ago, when the August jobs report showed the unemployment rate had declined but the pace of job creation did too.

    Entire: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...atrick-brennan

  3. #870
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    When I started this thread in 2007, over half (I'm sure American) voted in the thread poll that the US economy would recover in 5 years.

    Honestly, I was, and am, miffed by these votes.

    Poll: Half of Older Workers Delay Retirement

    Overwhelming majority say they expect to work to earn income even in retirement
    Read more: http://nation.time.com/2013/10/14/po...#ixzz2hi39V0CE

  4. #871
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    Do we even believe this anymore?


    U.S. trade, labor data underscore sluggish economy

    BY LUCIA MUTIKANI
    WASHINGTON Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:27pm EST

    [/COLOR]

    A tug boat passes in front of a freighter at the Port of Oakland in Oakland, California November 12, 2013.
    CREDIT: REUTERS/ROBERT GALBRAITH

    (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened in September as imports rose to their highest level in almost a year and exports fell for a third consecutive month, suggesting the third-quarter growth estimate will probably be lowered.

    Other data on Thursday painted a less upbeat picture of the labor market than had been suggested by last week's sturdy October payrolls report. First-time applications for jobless benefits fell last week, but the decline in claims for the week ended November 2 was smaller than previously reported.

    Entire: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9AD0RZ20131114


  5. #872
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    Rents have gone up quite a bit where I'm from.

    Skyrocketing rents hit 'crisis' levels

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101258649

  6. #873
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    More of the same:

    Debt ceiling could be hit in February: Lew

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101289074

  7. #874
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    I'm still interested in hearing from those members here who voted that the US economy would rebound in 5 years - I started this thread in 2007:

    Buckle up! 2014 will be a bumpy ride

    By Mark Thompson @MarkThompsonCNN January 25, 2014: 11:22 AM ET

    http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/25/inve...d=HP_Highlight

  8. #875
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    New from Mr. Celente:

    [yt]0hUT4ByPXIY#t=678[/yt]

  9. #876
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    Just a brief note to Chrome. I hope you return occasionally and offer your insights.

  10. #877
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    I just happened to stop in...it has been a busy past 6 months. I just relocated to California just close to two weeks now so I have been very pre-occupied unfortuntely with the move. I also happened to see that Derek Anthony died back in Dec.. wow !.....

    The winter this past year has been relentless and the cold was just starting to wear on me......there is again more snowfall to hit Chicago again this weekend and it was beginning to wear thin on me. I decided to move back in Sept 2013, so I actually got rid of most of my things, then drove out to CA...it was a long ass drive and took 2 days total.

  11. #878
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    One of the wild cards moving forward is how Janet Yellen will decide monetary policy in the future now that Ben Bernanke is gone. Janet has typically been more dovish than Larry Summers so that likely had a lot to do with her being the replacement. I find it ridiculous that Larry Summers was even considered given that he ......oh, you know......only contributed to the 2008 crisis by his previous actions in conjunction with Alan Greenspan.

    I don't expect much to change in terms of monetary policy however, you never know. I am considering buying a place out here in CA too. not as an investment, but just a place to live. I think that real estate property here has largely recovered and I'll talk to someone I know about it more specifically about buying. I'm more open to buying here vs. Chicago, however; I know that we will eventually re-visit another economic collapse and I'd rather buy 'on sale' if that makes sense.

    I always enjoy how people will discuss rate to me in terms of financing to buy a house and how I should lock in a low rate mortgage.....of course none of this matters to me as I'd pay for the place outright in cash :O)

    The way I have always seen it is that either, I lose out on paying additional interest on a mortgage so that's what like 3.5% now (I don't honestly keep track of these numbers)....so I pay 3.5% on a mortage, and try to invest the capital instead and earn more than 3.5% (I can)....or I lose out immediately on the outright cash payment on a house and not have to pay interest over 30 years.....if rates were much higher like 7%+ that would be a no brainer and I'd pay cash, 3.5% I can take the money otherwise else, probably roll it into a relatively stable sleepy fund @ 4%-4.5% and earn net-net 1-1.5% interest instead....

    In reality, it makes more sense to get a cheap mortgage (I have perfect credit) and take the money and invest it (I know how to do this) and earn a return vs. buying outright, but to be honest, I don't really want to deal with remembering to have to pay shit and I always try to make my life easier. I never carry cash, have nearly all payments I need to make automated and electronic, so my life is less stressful. It kills me whenever I go to a place and they say cash only....ppfffftttt...this is 2014......I use card always...easier to carry around, no loose change to deal with, and very secure (lost or stolen, cancel it...simple).

  12. #879
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    It's great to hear an update from you Chrome, and congrats on the new move. Yes, blue sky and sunshine will be refreshing and off you a better lifestyle.

  13. #880
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    I love these "unexpecedly" comments. They are so common in these reports / article.

    Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Decline for Eighth Month

    By Shobhana Chandra Mar 27, 2014



    Photographer: Matthew Staver/BloombergA hand painted "For Sale" sign in Denver.



    Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in February for an eighth straight month, a sign of further weakness in the industry.

  14. #881
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    Did georgeforemanrules also die ? I thought I saw something that said he did. I suppose a lot has changed since I have been around. California has been great and I have been doing work regarding effective communication and interpersonal skills regarding dating. This may seem completely a 180 and different which it is but I have enjoyed it so far. I actually fell into it from a guy I know who talked to me about it several years ago. As time has continued I sold my stake and was looking for something different that was not contingent on either health and fitness or investments.

    It's very interesting because a lot people I meet are very friendly however they lack a lot of social skills for whatever reason growing up and it had hindered them later on in life..

    These social skills are not just for dating but also professionally as well. Primarly we look to improve the person's interpersonal skills so it can either be applied to dating which has been most of the people I have spoken with or also effective management as well.


    How many people hate their boss ? How many people work for an organization that does not value feedback ?


    Every industry at some point will have some form or forms of management. Whether most organizations will admit it the success or failure is largely at the hands of management. The subordinates just follow orders....so far it's very interactive and I enjoy it....great change of pace and as ridiculous as it sounds it's very rewarding seeing someone go from being shy and timid to being a more confident individual.

  15. #882
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    Also regarding ongoing economic situations I know that ukraine as dominated the headlines with Russia but I'd follow more on what actually is happening with China. The GDP forecasts have been around 7-8% growth. While official and real numbers are suspect this is very significant from 10%+ merely several years ago. Besides an obvious economic ripple effect one area we looked at before in the past is the Chinese bank reserves to handle bad loans or effectively non performing loans. I have seen some stated numbers although they were much higher than what is being estimated. I would not be too concerned though because I think China will re capitalize the banks if needed. There is also talk of stimulating China as well and while this can certainly happen more it already is ongoing as we speak heavily though local entities funding white elephant projects.

  16. #883
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    And last but not least.....I own a galaxy s4 full disclosure and I love it. I highly recommend it.

    With that said... I truly believe apple has peaked permanently as a company and I have gotten a lot of flick for saying that. Android owns 80% of the smartphone market while apple owns 20%. Apple has been losing ground since 2011.

    Think about what the difference is between the 2. Google gives out android for free. It is loaded on to smartphone markers phones and the makers skin the software like samsungs touchwiz or HTCs sense. If you want to see raw Google Android look at a nexus phone. That software is raw android. The other cellphone makers layer another skin on that each customizes. I digress but hats what happens..

    This allows Google to focus on making android software. The other cellphone makers focus on making their hardware phones.

    My opinion is that Samsung, LG and HTC are the best. Motorola and Nokia are midgrade if you well. Each makers has their own phones and the most expensive like GALAXY s4 or Note and also a very cheap phone as well. So all smartphone makers have their high end and low end phones. Point being they all run android so they can check email Facebook, etc...

    Not everyone can spend $200+ on a smartphone hence the broad spectrum of phones. Point being android touches the wealthy to the lower income people. Google can also focus on software and the smartphone makers can focus on their phones.


    Now Apple. ....Apple develops both phone and software. So they have to deal with the task of both phones and software. Further more the reason the are only 20% of the market. And on top of that all their products are very expensive...so the niche is really only higher income people.

    They can get away with this if they provide unique and innovative products......which they have not....In quite some time. .....so with Steve Jobs being dead....I think apple is slowing beginning to fade and will continue. Their loss in market share is indicative of that.....

  17. #884
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    Great to hear an update, Chrome.

    Good on you.

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